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April 5-18, 2017 - Page 19 COLORADO R EAL ESTATE JOURNAL
Rebchook Real Estate Corner
Millennials.
Every city
wants them.
Denver is
actually get-
ting them.
A fair share
of the 10,000
or so people
moving to
the Mile
High City
every month
are in the coveted demographic
group. Many of these millennials
are renters, good news for the
Denver area multifamily market.
“Millennials are the biggest
generation ever” and also are the
most educated group ever, noted
John Burns, CEO of John Burns
Real Estate Consulting.
Burns, who is based in Califor-
nia, made those millennial com-
ments earlier this year at a ULI
Colorado event.
But Burns said that the word
“millennial” as a catchall defini-
tion for people born between 1984
and 2002 doesn’t make much
sense.
“If you are talking to millen-
nials born in the ‘80s and those
born in the 1990s, you will have
a much different conversation,”
Burns said.
He decided to dig deeper into
the demographic trends.
After three years and 9,000
hours of research, his firm came
up with eight different demo-
graphics to describe those born
in decades from the 1930s to the
2000s. Burns and co-author Chris
Porter summed up their find-
ings in a book: "Big Shifts Ahead:
Demographic Clarity for Busi-
ness."
“Denver looks a little different”
than other parts of the country,
Burns said.
“Denver is more skewed to
those born in the ‘80s and in the
‘70s than anywhere else in the
country,” he said.
Those born in the 1970s, he has
dubbed as the “balancers,” and
those born in the 1980s are the
“sharers.”
Those two millennial demo-
graphics account for 33.4 percent
of the Denver area population,
according to research by Burns.
The balancers, of course, want
everything: balance between
work, family and play.
The sharers are the earliest gen-
eration of millennials. They also
like social media, such as Face-
book, Instagram and Snapchat.
They also remember the hard eco-
nomic lessons of the Great Reces-
sion.
“They learned their lessons
from their parents and are afraid
of debt,” Burns said.
That is, other than student debt,
as they are saddled with much of
the $1.2 trillion in debt in the U.S.,
he pointed out.
Denver, he said, has been a
leader in master-planned com-
munities that
provide hous-
ing, retail and
offices in plac-
es such as Sta-
pleton, Lowry
andArvada.
“Give me
urban with
great schools
and you can’t
miss,” according to Burns.
These are what he calls “sur-
bans,” communities with subur-
ban and urban qualities.
“Give me cool urban in the sub-
urbs. Love that urban feel. Surban
sounds better than mixed-use,”
Burns said.
Because Denver skews younger
than much the U.S., that bodes
well for the apartment market,
according toChris Porter, the chief
demographer and researcher at
Burns, who in addition to being
the co-author of Big Shifts Ahead,
is the chief demographer and
researcher at Burns Real Estate
Consulting.
“Weknowright nowtheyoung-
er population is delaying many of
the big milestones in life, like buy-
ing a home, andnot necessarily by
choice,” Porter said.
“As a group, as they enter adult-
hood, they are tending to rent,”
Porter added. “That should boost
the apartment market, purely as a
demographic shift.”
Indeed, a national report
released last week by Florida
International University and
Florida Atlantic University said
that Denver is one of only three
cities in the nation where rent-
ing an apartment carries less risk
than buying a home. The report,
by Beracha, Hardin & Johnson,
ranked Denver with Dallas and
Houston because of rapidly rising
home prices.
“It probably does make more
sense to rent than to buy in Den-
ver right now,” Porter agreed.
On the other hand, he is not
down on the Denver housing
market, either.
In fact, it is somewhat of a Gold-
ilocks market — not too hot and
not too cold, according to Porter.
The younger population in
Denver also is good news for res-
taurants, he noted.
“One thing we are noticing and
something you will see across the
country is that younger buyers are
more cost-conscious,” Porter said.
“They don’t want to rely too
heavily ondebt and they use debit
cards instead of credit cards,” he
said.
At the same time, they are more
into “experiences than posses-
sions."
"They are willing to pay for
experiences. I think if retail and
restaurants can help create an
experience for them, that will res-
onate with them.” ▲
John Rebchook
Rebchook Real Estate
Corner
John Burns
A snapshot of Denver area demographics by generation, rather than labels, such as baby boomers and millennials
Denver has more "sharers" than most cities. This is a generation that is delaying having children, which is
expected to boost the rental market.
See more Rebchook Real Estate Corner at
John Rebchook’s regularly
posted blogs include commercial real estate
news stories, in-depth looks at deals, profiles,
Q&As and pieces on the latest trends. Contact
John with story tips at
or 303-945-6865.
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